Two data points landed within weeks of each other this summer, and together they tell agents exactly where to focus for Q4 and into 2027.
First: the numbers behind this year's El Niño keep getting more extreme. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now puts the odds at 69% that this event will exceed every El Niño on record dating back to 1950, with a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" event this fall and winter. Pacific surface temperatures have already climbed 2°C above normal in some areas, rivaling 1997, the last time an event this powerful developed, and the Center puts the odds of El Niño persisting through March at 100%. Past El Niño winters (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16) each brought significant flood damage and coastal erosion, and this year's event is on track to meet or exceed those benchmarks.
Second: despite that risk, flood insurance take-up remains remarkably low. Recent industry reporting from Munich RE, citing FEMA data, puts flood insurance ownership at only about 4% of U.S. households, even though flood-related damage to single-family homes runs an estimated $24.4 billion a year, with roughly $17.1 billion of that absorbed annually by uninsured or underinsured homeowners. Munich Re's flood product team has also noted that major recent flood events, including Hurricane Helene, hit areas with NFIP take-up below 1%, often outside mapped flood hazard zones altogether.
Put those two facts together, and the opportunity for agents comes into focus: a historically active flood season is approaching, and most clients are heading into it uninsured largely because they don't know their real exposure.
Homeowners still tend to think about flood risk in binary terms: either they're in a mapped high-risk zone, or they assume they're safe. That mindset simply doesn't hold up. Modern flood modeling accounts for both river flooding and surface-water flooding from heavy rainfall. A growing share of recent losses have hit low- and moderate-risk areas with no mandatory flood insurance requirement. That gap between perceived and actual risk is where agents create real value, and where a flood conversation becomes a service rather than an upsell.
A season like this creates a natural, low-pressure reason to open flood conversations with clients who've never had one:
This is exactly the kind of moment AFR Insurance Services exists to help agents navigate. Through AFR, you get access to our private flood program, additional private flood markets, and the NFIP — multiple options to fit a client's actual risk and budget, rather than a single one-size-fits-all policy. Just as valuable is AFR's flood expertise behind you: our team helps translate flood zone data and modeling into terms clients understand, and walks through coverage options so those conversations feel informed and credible rather than like a cold sell.
Flood risk is shifting, take-up rates remain low, and clients are underestimating their exposure in ways that create both a service gap and a revenue opportunity for agents who address it head-on. The agents who proactively discuss flood coverage this fall will be the ones clients remember when the storms arrive.
Want help identifying which clients in your book are the best candidates for a flood conversation this season? Contact us to talk through options across our private flood markets and the NFIP.